Conditional generative models of high-dimensional images have many applications, but supervision signals from conditions to images can be expensive to acquire. This paper describes Diffusion-Decoding models with Contrastive representations (D2C), a paradigm for training unconditional variational autoencoders (VAEs) for few-shot conditional image generation. D2C uses a learned diffusion-based prior over the latent representations to improve generation and contrastive selfsupervised learning to improve representation quality. D2C can adapt to novel generation tasks conditioned on labels or manipulation constraints, by learning from as few as 100 labeled examples. On conditional generation from new labels, D2C achieves superior performance over state-of-the-art VAEs and diffusion models. On conditional image manipulation, D2C generations are two orders of magnitude faster to produce over StyleGAN2 ones and are preferred by 50% 60% of the human evaluators in a double-blind study. We release our code at https: //github.com/jiamings/d2c.

Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) represent a gold standard when developing policy guidelines. However, RCTs are often narrow, and lack data on broader populations of interest. Causal effects in these populations are often estimated using observational datasets, which may suffer from unobserved confounding and selection bias. Given a set of observational estimates (e.g. from multiple studies), we propose a meta-algorithm that attempts to reject observational estimates that are biased. We do so using validation effects, causal effects that can be inferred from both RCT and observational data. After rejecting estimators that do not pass this test, we generate conservative confidence intervals on the extrapolated causal effects for subgroups not observed in the RCT. Under the assumption that at least one observational estimator is asymptotically normal and consistent for both the validation and extrapolated effects, we provide guarantees on the coverage probability of the intervals output by our algorithm. To facilitate hypothesis testing in settings where causal effect transportation across datasets is necessary, we give conditions under which a doubly-robust estimator of group average treatment effects is asymptotically normal, even when flexible machine learning methods are used for estimation of nuisance parameters. We illustrate the properties of our approach on semi-synthetic and real world datasets, and show that it compares favorably to standard meta-analysis techniques.

Machine Learning and AI have the potential to transform data-driven scientific discovery, enabling accurate predictions for several scientific phenomena. As many scientific questions are inherently causal, this paper looks at the causal inference task of treatment effect estimation, where the outcome of interest is recorded in high-dimensional observations in a Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT). Despite being the simplest possible causal setting and a perfect fit for deep learning, we theoretically find that many common choices in the literature may lead to biased estimates. To test the practical impact of these considerations, we recorded ISTAnt, the first real-world benchmark for causal inference downstream tasks on high-dimensional observations as an RCT studying how garden ants (Lasius neglectus) respond to microparticles applied onto their colony members by hygienic grooming. Comparing 6 480 models fine-tuned from state-of-the-art visual backbones, we find that the sampling and modeling choices significantly affect the accuracy of the causal estimate, and that classification accuracy is not a proxy thereof. We further validated the analysis, repeating it on a synthetically generated visual data set controlling the causal model. Our results suggest that future benchmarks should carefully consider real downstream scientific questions, especially causal ones. Further, we highlight guidelines for representation learning methods to help answer causal questions in the sciences.

The assignment of papers to reviewers is a crucial part of the peer review processes of large publication venues, where organizers (e.g., conference program chairs) rely on algorithms to perform automated paper assignment. As such, a major challenge for the organizers of these processes is to specify paper assignment algorithms that find appropriate assignments with respect to various desiderata. Although the main objective when choosing a good paper assignment is to maximize the expertise of each reviewer for their assigned papers, several other considerations make introducing randomization into the paper assignment desirable: robustness to malicious behavior, the ability to evaluate alternative paper assignments, reviewer diversity, and reviewer anonymity. However, it is unclear in what way one should randomize the paper assignment in order to best satisfy all of these considerations simultaneously. In this work, we present a practical, one-size-fits-all method for randomized paper assignment intended to perform well across different motivations for randomness. We show theoretically and experimentally that our method outperforms currently-deployed methods for randomized paper assignment on several intuitive randomness metrics, demonstrating that the randomized assignments produced by our method are general-purpose.

In consequential domains, it is often impossible to compel individuals to take treatment, so that optimal treatment assignments are merely suggestions when humans make the final treatment decisions. On the other hand, there can be different heterogeneity in both the actual response to treatment and final treatment decisions given recommendations. For example, in social services, a persistent puzzle is the gap in take-up of beneficial services among those who may benefit from them the most. When decision-makers have equity-for fairness-minded preferences over both access and average outcomes, the optimal decision rule changes due to these differing heterogeneity patterns. We study identification and improved/robust estimation under potential violations of positivity. We consider fairness constraints such as demographic parity in treatment take-up, and other constraints, via constrained optimization. We develop a two-stage, online learning-based algorithm for solving over parametrized policy classes under general constraints to obtain variance-sensitive regret bounds. Our framework can be extended to handle algorithmic recommendations under an often-reasonable covariate-conditional exclusion restriction, using our robustness checks for lack of positivity in the recommendation.